Putin's offer to negotiate directly with Ukraine for the first time in years was dismissed as 'cynical' by one expert
Vladimir Putin surprised many observers on Monday by offering to negotiate directly with Ukraine to seek an end to his invasion.
Russia would be willing to stop hitting civilian targets, the Russian President said, if the sides could agree on which targets were fair game.
“This all needs to be sorted out,” Putin said, per a Kremlin transcript. “Perhaps bilaterally.” The remark, almost casual, has enormous implications.
Ukraine and Russia have not negotiated directly since the early weeks of the invasion in 2022.
Putin has repeatedly said that Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, is an illegitimate leader and that he would need to be removed from power before Moscow and Kyiv could engage.
Had he really dropped that red line? There are reasons to do so; Russia is under tremendous pressure from US President Donald Trump to make a deal.
Analysts told The i Paper that Putin’s offer likely had Trump squarely in mind.
“I think it is cynical – typical Putin,” said Stephen Hall, a Russian and Post-Soviet Politics lecturer at the University of Bath.
“I think it’s a way for Putin to turn round to Donald Trump to say ‘I tried, I want peace, I want to negotiate.'”
Callum Fraser, a research fellow in Russia and Eurasian Studies at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, said: “The Kremlin has attempted to position itself as a proponent of peace whilst conversely making Kyiv appear belligerent.
“This is part of a continuum of ‘peace desiring’ statements that Putin has made throughout this conflict.”
With Trump pushing both sides to reach a deal fast, Putin could reasonably conclude that this is his best chance to end a costly war on terms which favour him.
And even if it does not work, time is on his side.
“Spinning the negotiations out benefits the Russians – Putin believes Trump is more likely to kick the Ukrainians than he will Russia,” Hall said.
To say Kyiv does not trust Putin would be the most extreme understatement. It may cite very recent history for that posture. Ukrainian authorities said that Putin’s latest seemingly peaceful overture – a self-declared truce over Easter – was widely flouted on the ground.
It might point to the way Putin has always claimed to wage a humanitarian war despite the abundant evidence of homes, hospitals, schools and playgrounds blanketed by Russian bombs.
The infamous events of 2022 in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, hardened hearts in Ukraine when mass graves were uncovered after the Russian occupation. It helped derail the last peace talks, where Russians and Ukrainians met face to face.
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Russia dismisses those killings as a hoax, a common response when confronted with evidence of apparent war crimes.
Ukraine has long been wary that a ceasefire that merely freezes the fighting would cost it dearly. Russia, it fears, has more resources and more soldiers and would simply use a time-out to come back stronger.
“Putin is winning the war,” Professor Hall told The i Paper. “The economy is entirely beholden on retaining the military expenditure, and Putin can outlast the Ukrainians; he has more men and materiel.”
All the same, Zelensky went along with Trump’s push to sign a 30-day total ceasefire. Russia never got on board.
There are still visible efforts afoot. The UK is hosting talks between Ukraine’s allies on Wednesday that will feature Kyiv’s representatives alongside British, US and French officials.
Trump has repeatedly exclaimed that he expects a peace deal sometime this week.
But with no outward signs of a breakthrough, those watching, especially in Ukraine itself, will likely stay wary.
